Prepare a 2-4 pages report (12-point, double spaced, 1” margins T/B/L/R). Discuss key
learning points for 2 guest speakers (John Avery and Shash Hegde) and explain how these fit (or not) with our
Technology Strategy class so far. Use the class discussion slides (Weeks 1-7) and incorporate topics discussed in class slides that would correlate with the guest speakers discussion. *I attached John Avery’s and Shash Hegde’s slides below in attachements.*I also posted the class slides (Weeks 1-7) as well, so you can reference the class discussions and incorporate into the paper too.
j_avery_slides.pdf
john_avery_bio.pdf
s._hedge___microsoft_slides.pdf
shash_hegde_bio.pdf
ts7_i.pdf
Unformatted Attachment Preview
1/31/2019
Technology
Strategy in an
Exponential world
Scheller MBA
Jan 31st, 2019
John Avery
Agenda
1. How did we get here?
2. Where are we now?
3. How can we leverage?
4. Case Study
2
1
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The importance of Frameworks
Cognition is never extracted from the situation. You don’t make sense
from the situation, you impose sense upon the situation. Confusion is
the absence of the framework, and known confusion just means that
you have framework. You can label it. We have a nice saying in Belfast,
“If you are not confused, you don’t understand anything.”
https://www.presencing.org/aboutus/theory-u/leadershipinterview/W_Brian_Arthur
We don’t describe the world we see, we see the world we can describe. – Rene Descartes
https://www.azquotes.com/quote/879510
3
How did we get here?
Evangelos Simoudis
Steve Blank
4
2
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Corporate Innovation Centers in Atlanta
5
Startup ecosystem in Atlanta
6
3
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New model emerging: Engage Partners
7
The magic of exponential curves!
Exponential curves
are amazing things
Every bit of ground
we’ve covered from the
beginning of computing
until now (about 50 years)
We will cover again in
THE NEXT 2 YEARS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
2
4
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The magic of exponential curves!
New innovation pressure!
Compute
Storage
ALL ON EXPONENTIAL CURVES
Bandwidth
10
http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/es/Documents/sector-publico/Deloitte_ES_Sector-Publico_From-exponential-technologies-to-exponential-innovation.pdf
5
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Side Bar: Building height
Steel I-Beam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_world%27s_tallest_buildings
Side Bar: Jeddah Tower
Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia
1km (3281 ft)
30,000 people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower
6
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Urbanization Megatrends
3,000,000 people moving to cities EVERY WEEK
20,000 football fields paved over EVERY DAY
By 2030 around 50 cities with more than 10 million
(up from 29 today)
In 1950 83 cities of more than 1 Million people
Today there are 468 cities of more than 1 Million
The last man to know everything?
Aristotle (384-322 BC)
Roger Bacon (1214-1294)
Leonardo da Vinci
(1452-1519)
14
http://www.eoht.info/m/page/Last+person+to+know+everything
7
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Systems: Network of Networks
15
The Toaster Project
Building from scratch is nearly
impossible today
Thomas Thwaites
16
8
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Is it inevitable?
Kevin Kelly
•
•
•
What Technology Wants
Out of Control
The Inevitable
http://longnow.org/seminars/02014/nov/12/technium-unbound/
17
Is it inevitable?
Elon Musk
“People are mistaken when they think
that technology just automatically
improves. It does not automatically
improve. It only improves if a lot of
people work very hard to make it
better.”
https://www.inverse.com/article/31049-elon-musk-best-quotes-ted-2017
18
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Economic Models: GPUs
https://www.techspot.com/article/650-history-of-the-gpu/
19
Economic Models: GPUs
20
10
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What GPUs enable
Just try every
possibility
21
https://rse-lab.cs.washington.edu/projects/mcl/
What GPUs enable
Just try every
possibility
No if/then logic
Just data
22
11
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Quick sidebar: What comes next?
What comes after
Deep Learning?
23
Quick sidebar: What comes next?
What comes after
Deep Learning?
Might there be a higher-order
way to capture knowledge than
correlation?
24
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Quick sidebar: What comes next?
Are we entering the age of
Creatives rather than STEM?
25
So what does this mean for innovation?
26
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So what does this mean for innovation?
27
Correct?
“The electric light did not come
from the continuous improvement
of candles.”
– Oren Harari
28
14
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Take away: leverage the i-beams
1
2
3
Primary long running economic driver (PC Gaming)
Drives enabling technology (GPUs)
Enables new economic drivers (AI)
Becomes an I-Beam
29
Enables new economic drivers (Bitcoin)
Enables new economic drivers (AVs)
What are today’s i-beams?
Compute
PLATFORMS:
Storage
Bandwidth
AWS, Google Cloud, Azure
AI platforms (Siri, Alexa, Google, Watson,…)
Robotics (ROS, r-pi, …)
Machine vision (CNTK, Tensorflow, OpenCV, …etc)
…
30
15
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What are today’s i-beams?
Andrew Ng: Artificial
Intelligence is the
New Electricity
31
The Future: what are tomorrow’s i-beams
Is it possible to ‘will’ i-beams into existence?
32
16
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The Future: what are tomorrow’s i-beams
Elements:
1. Lot’s of people working very hard for a long time
2. Lot’s of up front investment capital
3. An economic driver to make revenue as you go (today)
4. A BIG VISION
33
Explosion in connected cars
“
”
Over 380 million
connected cars will be
on the road by 2021
34
http://www.businessinsider.com/connected-car-forecasts-top-manufacturers-leading-car-makers-2015-3
17
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Explosion in data (just from connected cars)
2
1
Https://qz.Com/344466/connected-cars-will-send-25-gigabytes-of-data-to-the-cloud-every-hour/
35
Https://www.Networkworld.Com/article/3147892/internet/one-autonomous-car-will-use-4000-gb-of-dataday.Html
Http://www.Revdapp.Com/2017/02/04/5-things-you-must-know-about-my-car-my-data/
3
6
Explosion in data (just from connected cars)
36
http://www.businessinsider.com/internet-of-things-connected-transportation-2016-10
18
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Hypothetical case study
Let’s put a million people on mars
(just hypothetically)
SpaceX – Rocket Company
– re-supply space station
– launching satellites
Starlink – Satellite communication company
– global high speed internet today
SolarCity – Solar power company
– supplying distributed sustainable energy today
The Boring Company – tunneling company
– solving today’s traffic problems
Hyperloop – tunnel transportation company
– solving rapid mobilization problems today
37
38
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Hypothetical case study
1.Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
2.Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
3.Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
4.Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
5.Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
6.Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive
fleet learning
“This is part of Musk’s overall
strategy that you see
throughout his companies:
build something really helpful
to use now that finances the
crazy stuff of the future.”
7.Enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it
ThursNL_01_18_2018&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9dc0513989-4e69c97fdf-89727953
Summary
Set big long range goals trusting in the exponential curve
Deliver value today (and every day) till you get there
Leverage cross-value from today’s technologies whenever
possible
40
20
“A computer on
every desk and
in every home.”
Possible Disruptors?
“You join Microsoft, not to
be cool, but to make others
cool.”
Be Bold.
And be right.
Bold Moves
Release Office on iOS
Write off Nokia, kill Windows Phone
Fire leadership. Fire 1000’s of employees.
Reorg Sales, Engineering, Windows
Revamp culture, mission, strategy
Buy LinkedIn
Embrace Open Source
Buy Github
The Platform Company
https://stratechery.com/2018/the-bill-gates-line/
“A platform is when the
economic value of
everybody that uses it,
exceeds the value of the
company that creates it.”
Platform
https://stratechery.com/2018/the-bill-gates-line/
Apple
https://stratechery.com/2018/the-bill-gates-line/
Aggregators
Azure
Timeline
2006
2010
2011
2014
2018
AWS launches
focused on
compute and
storage
Windows Azure
and SQL Azure
released
Google Cloud
Platform initial
release
‘Windows Azure’
rebranded to
‘Microsoft Azure’
Linux dominates
Azure.
Microsoft
acquires GitHub
Follow the $$$
Communities
>95%
of Fortune 500 use
Microsoft Azure
Azure
services
Azure
DevOps
Azure
data services
Azure
Active Directory
Developer
Platform
DevOps
Data
Platform
Identity
Azure
DevOps
SQL Server, MySQL,
PostgreSQL, NoSQL
Azure Stack
Active Directory
Azure security
& management
Security
& Management
Azure security
& management
YOUR DATA ESTATE
SQL Server
HYBRID
Easiest lift and shift
with no code changes
Azure Data Services
Data Estate : Building blocks
Azure Data Services
SQL Server
The Azure Data Landscape
AZURE
DATA FACTORY
AZURE IMPORT
EXPORT SERVICE
AZURE CLI
AZURE SDK
AZURE SQL DB
AZURE STORAGE AZURE DATA LAKE
STORE
BLOBS
AZURE IOT HUB
AZURE
ANALYSIS SERVICES
AZURE SQL DATA WAREHOUSE
AZURE COSMOS DB
AZURE DATA LAKE
ANALYTICS
AZURE
HDINSIGHT
AZURE
STREAM ANALYTICS
AZURE
HDINSIGHT
AZURE
DATABRICKS
AZURE ML
ML SERVER
POWER BI
AZURE
DATABRICKS
AZURE EVENT HUBS
AZURE SEARCH
KAFKA ON
AZURE HDINSIGHT
AZURE EXPRESSROUTE
AZURE
ACTIVE DIRECTORY
AZURE
DATA CATALOG
AZURE NETWORK
SECURITY GROUPS
AZURE KEY
MANAGEMENT SERVICE
AZURE
DATABRICKS
OPERATIONS
MANAGEMENT SUITE
BOT SERVICE COGNITIVE SERVICES
AZURE FUNCTIONS
VISUAL STUDIO
The Azure Data Landscape
AZURE
DATA FACTORY
AZURE IMPORT
EXPORT SERVICE
AZURE CLI
AZURE SDK
Data
Warehouse
Operational
Data Stores
Batch Data
Movement
AZURE SQL DB
AZURE STORAGE AZURE DATA LAKE
STORE
BLOBS
Event
Ingestion
AZURE IOT HUB AZURE EVENT HUBS
Search &
AZUREDiscovery
SEARCH
AZURE
DATA CATALOG
KAFKA ON
AZURE HDINSIGHT
AZURE
ANALYSIS SERVICES
AZURE SQL DATA WAREHOUSE
AZURE COSMOS DB
Storage
BI
Machine Learning
Big Data Processing
AZURE DATA LAKE
ANALYTICS
AZURE
HDINSIGHT
AZURE
DATABRICKS
AZURE ML
Event Processing
AZURE
STREAM ANALYTICS
AZURE
HDINSIGHT
POWER BI
ML SERVER
AZURE
DATABRICKS
AI
AZURE
DATABRICKS
BOT SERVICE COGNITIVE SERVICES
Other: Networking, Security, Monitoring, Serverless, DevOps
AZURE EXPRESSROUTE
AZURE
ACTIVE DIRECTORY
AZURE NETWORK
SECURITY GROUPS
AZURE KEY
MANAGEMENT SERVICE
OPERATIONS
MANAGEMENT SUITE
AZURE FUNCTIONS
VISUAL STUDIO
AI
Data Estate
A ZURE AI
AI apps & agents
Knowledge mining
Machine learning
Cognitive Services
Cognitive Search
Databricks
Bot Service
Machine Learning
AI Infrastructure
Other AI investments
Cognitive Search
Automated ML: Azure ML
Azure Machine Learning
Automated machine learning
How much is this car worth?
Model creation is typically a time consuming process
Which features?
Which algorithm?
Mileage
Mileage
Gradient Boosted
Gradient
Boosted
Parameter 1
Criterion
Condition
Nearest Neighbors
Parameter 2
Loss
Car brand
brand
SVM
Parameter
Min
Samples
3 Split
Year of
of make
make
Bayesian Regression
Parameter
Min
Samples
4 Leaf
Regulations
LGBM
…
Others
…
…
Which parameters?
Model
Model creation is typically a time consuming process
Which features?
Which algorithm?
Which parameters?
Mileage
Mileage
Gradient
Boosted
Gradient Boosted
Criterion
N
Neighbors
Condition
Condition
Nearest Neighbors
Nearest
Neighbors
Loss
Weights
Car brand
brand
SVM
Min Samples Split
Metric
Year of
of make
make
Bayesian Regression
Min Samples Leaf
P
Regulations
LGBM
Others
…
…
Iterate
Model
Model creation is typically a time consuming process
Which features?
Which algorithm?
Iterate
Which parameters?
Azure Machine Learning accelerates model development
with automated machine learning
Input
Intelligently test multiple models in parallel
Output
Optimized model
Enter data
Define goals
Apply constraints
Other AI investments
Cognitive Search
Automated ML: Azure ML
Simulation: Airsim
Other AI investments
Cognitive Search
Automated ML: Azure ML
Simulation: Airsim
Machine Teaching: Bons.ai
Edge and containers + Cognitive Services
Mixed Reality+AI
Full duplex with Xiaoice etc.
Thank you!
Q&A
Competitive strategy based
on open source software
Google’s Android
Technology Strategy
Week 7
Marco Ceccagnoli
TO BE INNOVATIVE A FIRM CAN:
INVEST IN R&D IN-HOUSE
INTRODUCE NEW OR IMPROVED
PRODUCTS AND PROCESSES
PROFIT USING
OTHER
STRATEGIES
PATENT
PRODUCT
MARKET
COMPETITION
BUY / PARTNER
(IN-LICENSE, R&D JV, M&A, CVC
OR OTHER TECHNOLOGY
TRANSACTIONS)
(TRADE SECRECY, LEAD
TIMES, ETC.)
OTHER STRATEGIES
(PREEMPT, FREEDOM OF ACTION,
NEGOTIATE/CROSS-LICENSE, “STICK”
LICENSING…)
MARKETS
FOR
TECHNOLOGY AND
OTHER INTANGIBLE
ASSETS
SELL
TECHNOLOGY
(“CARROT”
LICENSING)
1
Alternative appropriability strategies to
profit from network effects (open vs close)
▪ Different pricing strategy relative to the underlying
platform
▪ Typically better to charge one side and “subsidize” the other
▪ Microsoft strategy as proprietary platform owner:
▪ Profit from installed base of users charging license fee from a
closed platform, subsidize ISVs
▪ Companies supporting Linux:
▪ ISV’s and OSVs using Linux: 1) profit from service, support, apps
(mixed model); 2) maintain/subsidize/contribute to an open and
shared platform
Open vs close:
Value creation and value captured
When creating a new network, we can choose between an
open vs. proprietary standard (or a hybrid)
Share appropriated
Proprietary
Value
appropriated
Open
Total value created
2
But a small share of a growing pie due to
network effects and other related
drivers…..
Share appropriated
Microsoft charging lower
prices initially;
WTP for Windows
growing due to
increasing returns
Value
appropri
ated
Total value created
But a small share of a growing pie due to
network effects and other related
drivers…..
Microsoft
Share appropriated
lowering
prices again
as Linux
expands
Linux
ecosystem
players
share value
created
Total value created
3
Who profits from Linux, or OSS in
general?
▪ Service, support, ISVs, OSVs… more so in
business segment
From MacOS to Windows, Apple lost the
OS standard war in the 1990s for PCs
Integrated business model, did not benefit of indirect network effect;
weak incentives to upgrade OS
4
• …But got it right
with its first
successful
diversification in
digital music players
in the early 2000s
Indirect network effects got Apple
out of trouble starting with the iPod
Apple iPod
Installed Base
Demand for
iPod
+
iTunes Music
Store songs
Value of iPod
Positive feedback effect
5
Leveraged business model in mobile
phones — iOS
OS
Installed
Base
Demand for OS
+
Apps
Value of OS
Network effects + Economies of Scale + Switching
Costs contribute to lock-in users
Android
▪ What is Android? OS license?
▪ How was Android able to challenge iOS?
▪ Key drivers of success?
▪ What makes Android attractive for App Developers?
6
Android
platform
architecture
Kernel released
as GPL, the rest
using Apache
https://developer.android.com/guide/platform/
The GPL family of licenses (Linux kernel)
▪ Basic rights under the GPL – access to source
code, right to make derivative works
▪ “Copyleft” – cannot take modifications private
7
The Apache license (part of Android)
▪ Same basic rights as GPL – i.e. access to
source code, right to make derivative works
▪ No copyleft provisions, i.e. licensees can take
software licensed under Apache private
▪ Can re-release software under a different
license
▪ Allowed OEM to differentiate/customize the OS
How does Google profit from Android?
8
Potential problems for Android?
9
…
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