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Because of the length of this discussion, there are also only 2 topics to review and post on for this week. Topic 1 is broken into 2 parts and focuses on the food system itself and how it developed. It includes a video and a website that really discusses all aspects of the food system relevant to this class but you will only be watching the first section of the video but the two topics together will take some time.Topic 2 is dedicated to food production and shows trends in food production both past and present. Many people think there is not enough food on the planet right now but that it is not true. However, our world has seen a decreasing trend since around the year 2000 so it is something we need to be concerned about!Topic 1: Part 1This link has multiple sections that you must read and answer the questions based on that information.http://www.foodsystemprimer.org/the-food-system/index.html (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.In the Food System section, what are the current challenges facing our food system?In Food Distribution, what are the benefits and drawbacks of a global food system? Is a global food system sustainable (make sure you support your answers from the article)?What are the benefits and drawbacks of food processing according to the article?Ih the Food Safety section, how is foodborne illness changed over time? Is our food system safe (please support your answer with information from the readings or articles)?In Food Waste, what are the ramifications of food waste for world hunger and for the planet?In Food Policy, what are the benefits and drawbacks of the US food policy?Topic 1, Part 2:GMO’s Revealed: You will be watching the first 43 minutes of Dr. Zach Bush but parts 2 and 3 are interesting if this topic is important to you.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqNDaL4eqC0&feature=youtu.be (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.When did our food system radically change? What is the “dust bowl”?What was involved in the Green Revolution? How is it involved with the chemical industry? What are the consequences?How does the information in the video on the Green Revolution compare to the information in reading #15?What is the relationship between Round Up and wheat?What is the effect of the “short cuts” in our food system? Explain your answer and give at least 2 examples.Do you think the American people have been adequately informed about these foods? Explain your answer.Topic #2This is the powerpoint used in my face to face class. I am having a difficult time finding links to provide this information so I decided to use this. Use this and the document below to answer questions on food production.Food Security.pptx (upload)This is a document from the Food and Agriculture Organization. Please read the executive summary and section 5 pages 46 to 55.PDF on food production.pdf (upload)What are the factors involved in the food security equation?What is the relationship between the price of food and food security? How does availability factor into this?How would the food production per capita affect a country’s stability?What are some of the factors resulting in decreased food production?What are the current and future trends affecting the food system?At current production levels, are we going to be able to feed the population in 2050 (explain your answer)?What needs to happen to feed the world in 2050?
food_security.pptx

pdf_on_food_production.pdf

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Food Security
Hunger and Environmental Nutrition
NuFS 139
Food security thus has three
dimensions

Availability of sufficient quantities of food of
appropriate quality, supplied through
domestic production or imports;

Access by households and individuals to
appropriate foods for a nutritious diet; and

Optimal uptake of nourishment thanks to a
sustaining diet, clean water and adequate
sanitation, together with health care.
To Provide Food Security


Focus on people!
Shift from the problem of food production
to the purchasing power of the families at
risk for undernutrition.

 food production → food shortages →
 food prices.

This makes it difficult for the poor to
purchase adequate supplies.
Food Security Equation

Food Security Equation:

In the simplest form: it compares the value of the
food production deficit in a household with the
income and liquid assets that household has
available to purchase food.
Value of food production
 Income and
liquid deficit in a household (HH)
assets available to (are you able to grow food?)
purchase food
Food Production Equation
Continued
So the equation can be re-written as:
Food Purchase X Price of 
Income and liquid
requirement
food
assets available to
purchase food

When price of food  →→ the left hand side
gets bigger →→ Food insecurity 

When price of food  →→ the left hand side
gets smaller →→ Food insecurity 
Household Food Consumption
Requirement
The household food consumption rate is
affected by:
Number of people in the household
 Age
 Sex
 Working status


Childbearing  food needs during
pregnancy and lactation.
Household Food Production

Poorest people in the world are generally
landless.

The relationship between household
production and food security is mainly
relevant to families with land.

Many Americans are now growing more
food at home. (community gardens)
Price of Food

Quantity produced


Demand



Weather and Natural disasters can effect this
situaion
Health trends
Size of the population
Per capita income


Ability of people to pay for food
Economy

Tastes and preferences of the customers

Governments- tariffs, export taxes, price
controls, and subsidies of purchased
inputs
Food Production per Capita

Definition:
The food production per capita index
presents net food production (after
deduction for feed and seed) of a
country’s agricultural sector per person
relative to the base period. The food
production per capita index covers all
edible agricultural products that contain
nutrients; coffee and tea are excluded.
Current trends in per capita food
production

Food production has continued to grow faster
than the population but the % continues to
decrease dramatically.

Worldwide food production per capita has
increased steadily between 1965 and 2000 at
the rate of 5% per decade.

Between 2000 and 2013 Production growth
decreased to 2.4% and yields were only 1.8%.

Food production per capita in the developed
world where population growth is much
slower, has grown much more rapidly
Current trends in per capita food
production

In the developing countries, food production has
continued to grow, but at a slower rate than the
population, so production per capita has declined.

Since 1961, worldwide calories per capita have
increased over 31%, from 2196 calories per person
per day to 2870 calories per person per day in
2011.

Similarly, protein availability has also increased
about 17% to 72.4 gms per person per day.
U.S. Caloric Availability

The U.S. has 3800 Calories available per
person.

The average U.S. citizen consumes 2800
Calories per day.

The remaining 1000 Calories of food is
lost in waste, garbage, etc.
(I just saw a statistic that we waste on
average 1400 Calories per day but could not
verify)
Top 20 Food Producing
Countries

New Zealand

Lithuania

Belgium

Netherlands

Belize

Canada

Ukraine

Belarus

Costa Rica
Argentina

Greece

Ireland

Spain


Paraguay

Australia

Uruguay

Denmark

France

Brazil

United States of America
Top 10 Food Exporting
Countries

United States

Canada

Brazil

China

Netherlands

Belgium

Germany

Spain

France

Argentina
Food Supply and the World Markets

High grain prices have lead to world
unrest and food riots in 2008

If high grain prices persist, free trade will
no longer dominate the world’s food
system.

The effect on nations that opened their
markets to cheap grain imports:

Can’t afford the higher prices

Farmers have left farming and countries no longer have
the ability to feed themselves.
World Consumption and
Stocks of Grain
Annual Average Food
Production Increases
Food Security Trends
Basic indicators of food security signal a
tightening situation in the future

Grain production per person is decreasing
overall as growth in production can not
keep up with population increase

Diets are shifting more toward meat,
milk, dairy and sugary foods.

Livestock and biofuel production is
decreasing crop production
Food Security Trends Cont.



Seafood catch per person is decreasing

Fisheries are being pushed past a sustainable yield

Overfishing

Stock depletion

Decline in catch

Some species no longer available
Weather and natural disasters effecting
food production (300% increase on
produce items for 2011 due to freezing
weather in Mexico and the Southern
United States.
Increased prices with drought in Mid West
for 2012
1
ISSN 2522-722X (online)
ISSN 2522-7211 (print)
The future
of food and
agriculture
Trends
and challenges
The future
of food and
agriculture
Trends
and challenges
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Rome, 2017
Citation: FAO. 2017. The future of food and agriculture – Trends and challenges. Rome.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do
not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of
any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers,
whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or
recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.
ISBN 978-92-5-109551-5
© FAO, 2017
FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information
product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed
for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products
or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright
holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied
in any way.
All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use
rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to
[email protected]
FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and
can be purchased through [email protected]
Contents
Foreword
vi
Acknowledgements
viii
Abbreviations
ix
Executive summary
x
CAUSE FOR HOPE AND CONCERN
1
TRENDS
1 Population growth, urbanization and ageing
2 Global economic growth, investment, trade and food prices
3 Competition for natural resources
4 Climate change
5 Agricultural productivity and innovation
6 Transboundary pests and diseases
7 Conflicts, crises and natural disasters
8 Poverty, inequality and food insecurity
9 Nutrition and health
10 Structural change and employment
11 Migration and agriculture
12 Changing food systems
13 Food losses and waste
14 Governance for food and nutrition security
15 Development finance
9
11
17
32
39
46
56
62
70
80
88
98
106
112
118
123
CHALLENGES
1 Sustainably improving agricultural productivity
to meet increasing demand
2 Ensuring a sustainable natural resource base
3 Addressing climate change and intensification of natural hazards
4 Eradicating extreme poverty
and reducing inequality
5 Ending hunger and all forms of malnutrition
6 Making food systems more efficient, inclusive and resilient
7 Improving income earning opportunities in rural areas
and addressing the root causes of migration
8 Building resilience to protracted crises, disasters and conflicts
9 Preventing transboundary and emerging agriculture
and food system threats
10 Addressing the need for coherent and effective national
and international governance
133
136
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
142
143
ANNEX
International frameworks of relevance to FAO’s work and mandates
145
REFERENCES
151
iii
The future of food and agriculture
· Trends and challenges
Figures
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12
2.13
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
4.1
4.2
4.3
5.1
5.2
5.3
6.1
6.2
7.1
7.2
7.3
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
9.1a
9.1b
9.2a
Global population growth to 2100, by variant
Population growth to 2100, by region (medium variant)
Growth in global urban and rural populations to 2050
Urbanization trends, by region
Projections of GDP growth, by region
Projections of per capita GDP growth, by region
Growth in GDP to 2050, by region
Growth of per capita GDP to 2050, by region
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), by region, 1990–2015
Investment rates, by country group and region, 1990–2015
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in agriculture,
by country group and region, 1990–2015
Agricultural investment orientation ratio by region, 1990–2015
Agricultural net capital-output (value added) ratio, 1990–2015
Additional income and investment to eradicate hunger by 2030
Total and agricultural international trade volume, 1961–2015
Percentage of net food imports in domestic food supply in total calories
FAO real food price index (RFPI)
Agricultural and forest land use 1961–2013
Net forests conversion, by region, 1990–2015
Total annual freshwater withdrawals as a percentage
of total annual available flow
Trends and projections in land equipped for irrigation to 2050
Annual greenhouse gas emissions from Agriculture, Forestry
and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
Annual greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors
Projected changes in crop yields owing to climate change
Average annual rate of change in crop yields
Sources of growth in agricultural production,
by country income group, 1961–2010
Averages of agricultural research intensity,
by country income group
Reported outbreaks of lumpy skin disease, per month, 2006–2015
Global spread of crop pests and pathogens, 1950–2000
Prevalence of undernourishment and protracted crises
Climate-related disasters, 1980–2011
Agricultural production losses after medium- to large-scale disasters
in developing countries, by cause and region, 2003–2013
People below the poverty line (PPP) of US$ 1.90 per day, 1990–2015
Per capita indicators of low- and middle-income countries
relative to high-income countries, 1990–2015
GDP per capita projections in low- and middle-income countries
as a share of high-income countries
Undernourishment in a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, 2005–2050
Per capita calorie intake by source, 1961–2050
Per capita calorie intake in low- and middle-income countries
compared to high-income countries
Per capita protein intake by source, 1961–2050
iv
12
13
14
15
18
18
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
33
33
37
38
40
40
42
48
50
52
57
58
63
66
67
71
74
76
78
83
83
84
Contents
9.2b Per capita protein intake in low- and middle-income countries
compared to high-income countries
9.3 Greenhouse gas emissions by diet type
10.1 Sectoral contributions to aggregate GDP, by region, 1980–2010
10.2 Sectoral employment shares, by region, 1990–2010
10.3 Sectoral value added per worker, by region
10.4 Estimates of the population aged 15-24 years, 1950–2050
11.1 International migrant stock, by destination, 1970–2015
11.2 International migrants in destination countries, 1990–2015
11.3 Remittances to low- and middle-income countries
compared with other financial inflows, 1990–2018
12.1 Share of the food retail trade, by channel and region
13.1 Distribution of food losses and waste along the supply chain
14.1 The Sustainable Development Goals
15.1 Financial flows to low-income countries, 2000–2013
15.2 Composition of financial flows to low-income countries, 2012
15.3 Investment in agriculture in low- and middle-income countries,
by source, 2005–7 (annual average)
84
86
89
90
93
96
99
101
102
107
114
119
124
124
128
Tables
5.1
Increase in agricultural production required to match
projected food demand, 2005–2050
5.2 Annual average crop yields, 2001–2012
5.3 Real growth of public spending on agricultural R&D
8.1 Number of undernourished, 1990/92–2030
11.1 Numbers of international migrants, by origin and destination, 2013
11.2 Female share of economically active population in agriculture
in 1980, 1995 and 2010
15.1 Tentative estimates of annual incremental investments needed
in energy, agriculture and food security for sustainable development
v
46
47
52
77
99
103
127
Foreword
F
AO’s vision is of a ‘world free from hunger and malnutrition, where food and
agriculture contribute to improving the living standards of all, especially
the poorest, in an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable
manner’. To help its Member Countries realize that shared vision – individually
at the national level and collectively at the regional and global levels – FAO organizes
its work taking account of the main challenges facing the food and agriculture sector.
The present study, which was undertaken for the quadrennial review of FAO’s Strategic
Framework and preparation of the Organization’s Medium-Term Plan, 2018–21, lays
out key global trends and challenges that will influence food and agriculture in the
coming decades.
The trends and challenges analysed here are cause for both hope and concern. Much
progress has been made in reducing hunger and poverty and improving food security
and nutrition. Gains in productivity and technological advances have contributed to
more efficient resource use and improved food safety. But major concerns persist.
Some 795 million people still suffer from hunger, and more than two billion from
micronutrient deficiencies or forms of overnourishment. In addition, global food
security could be in jeopardy, due to mounting pressures on natural resources and
to climate change, both of which threaten the sustainability of food systems at large.
Planetary boundaries may well be surpassed, if current trends continue.
Our assessment of prevailing trends suggests, therefore, that in order to realize
FAO’s vision, transformative change in agriculture and food systems are required
worldwide. In FAO’s view, there are 10 key challenges that need to be addressed if we
are to succeed in eradicating hunger and poverty, while making agriculture and food
systems sustainable. Those challenges include the uneven demographic expansion
that will take place in the coming decades, the threats posed by climate change, the
intensification of natural disasters and upsurges in transboundary pests and diseases,
and the need to adjust to major changes taking place in global food systems.
We welcome the growing attention that the international community is paying
to these concerns. Overall trends and issues have spurred the global community to
action through a series of initiatives and agreements in 2015–16, which have reset the
global development agenda. These developments constitute the global context for FAO’s
work in the future, under the overall umbrella of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and include the Addis
Ababa Action Agenda, the Paris Agreement on climate change, the World Humanitarian
Summit and the United Nations Secretary-General’s Agenda for Humanity.
The purpose of this report is to help mobilize the concrete and concerted actions
required to realize these global agendas. It contributes to a common understanding of
the major long-term trends and challenges that will determine the future of food security
and nutrition, rural poverty, the efficiency of food systems, and the sustainability and
resilience of rural livelihoods, agricultural systems and their natural resource base.
José Graziano da Silva
Director-General
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
vii
The future of food and agriculture
· Trends and challenges
Acknowledgements
This report is an FAO corporate
effort that builds on contributions
from all of FAO’s Technical
Departments. A preliminary
version of this report was
prepared as a study for the
Strategic Thinking Process
underpinning FAO’s Medium-Term
Plan 2018–2021, whose objectives
are to review FAO’s strategic
framework in the light of recent
global challenges facing the
Organization’s Member Nations
and the international community.
The FAO Strategic Experts Panel,
comprising Alain de Janvry,
Ismahane Elouafy, Shenggen
Fan, Gustavo Gordillo, Marion
Guillou, Mulu Ketsela and Martin
Piñeiro, provided comments and
guidance for improving the initial
assessment. The panel described
the document as ‘an example of
FAO’s extraordinary capacities
to mobilize information and
knowledge’ and recommended
that it be made public.
Preparation of both the
preliminary study and this
publication was coordinated by
FAO’s Global Perspective Studies
(GPS) team in the Economics
and Social Development (ES)
Department, under the general
direction and oversight of Rob
Vos, Director of FAO’s Agricultural
Development Economics Division
(ESA). Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù
(GPS Team Leader) coordinated
the technical work. Kostas
Stamoulis, Assistant DirectorGeneral a.i. of ES Department,
and Boyd Haight, Director of the
Office of Resources and Strategic
Planning (OSP), provided general
guidance and encouragement to
complete the work. Aysen TanyeriAbur (OSP) provided substantive
inputs to the study while Martin
Piñeiro (OSP) contributed to
the study design and overall
orientation.
Graeme Thomas led the final
editing of this study. Editorial
support was further provided
by Gordon Ramsay and Daniela
Verona. Giulio Sansonetti did the
graphic design and layout.
Linda Arata, Aikaterini Kavallari,
Marc Müller, and Dominik Wisser
(GPS) did research and data
analysis. Anna Doria Antonazzo
provided administrative support.
Forestry Department
Simone Borelli, Susan Braatz,
Lauren Flejzor, Thais Linhares
Juvenal, Eva Müller and
Zuzhang Xia.
This report would not have
been possible without the
substantive inputs and review
of specialists from across all
FAO’s Departments. Critical
contributions were provided by
the following:
Technical Cooperation
Department
Bruna Bambini, Anne Klervi
Cherriere, Rimma Dankova
and Guy Evers.
Economic and Social
Development Department
Dubravka Bojic, Andrea
Cattaneo, Juan Garcia Cebolla,
Michael Clark, Piero Conforti,
Andre Croppenstedt, Charlotte
Dufour, Valentina Franchi,
Ileana Grandelis, Erica Gunther,
Günter Hemrich, Julius Jackson,
Szilvia Lehel, Andrea Luciani,
Dalia Mattioni, Unna Mustalampi,
Karfakis Panagiotis, Anna
Rappazzo, Josef Schmidhuber,
Vanya Slavchevska, Libor
Stloukal, Florence Tartanac,
Francesco Tubiello, Klaus
Urban, Robert Van Otterdijk,
Ramani Wijesinha-Bettoni and
Trudy Wijnhoven.
Agriculture and Consumer
Protection Department
Teodardo Calles, Mona Chaya,
Giacomo De Besi, Hans Dreyer,
Fazil Dus …
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